Flooding in Cumbria – no magic bullet solutions but a long term action plan is needed.

As a Cumbrian living outside the county I feel helpless. Should I rush up to Cumbria to help or keep away as resources such as dry beds, electric power and fresh clean water are stressed. I watch from afar feeling the emotion and shock from my dry home in Derbyshire.

I have no immediate skills to offer but I’m contributing to the emergency funding and am trying to encourage others to do the same.

I have read the usual comments from farmers, that we don’t dredge the rivers anymore implying that speeding up the water flow is an answer. I have read a post calling for beavers to be reintroduced to slow the flow of water down rivers implying that floodplains should be allowed to do their job. They are all wrong.

I have read a great deal about flooding and land management since the Somerset Levels flooded. The stupidity of the Somerset politicians astounded me. But no one was brave enough to point a TV camera at them and ask obvious questions. 

To the politician:

In the last year, how many meeting have you been to with any of the 30 Parrett Catchment Project (PCP) partnership organisations? The main bodies are the Somerset Drainage Boards Consortium, Somerset County Council , National Farmers’ Union, Sedgemoor District Council, Environment Agency, South Somerset District Council, Taunton Deane Borough Council, Farming and Wildlife Advisory Group (FWAG). 

In effect: Before you criticise the Environment Agency, what have you done? 

To the farmer:

When you say you want the river dredged, what exactly is it in the river? Your topsoil? Can I see your soil management plan? (by law every farmer has one, although the coalition government reduced this bit of red tape so now no-one has the power to see it).

It would probably have been career suicide for the reporter to be that insensitive.

The very best ideas and articles have come from local people with local knowledge, and guess what, in other parts of the country this works.

I know that the rainfall was unprecedented but the flood defences for towns can never be a complete solution. The best approach I’ve come across is from Wales.

The Pontbren Project. A farmer-led approach to sustainable land management in the uplands.

http://www.coedcymru.org.uk/farmwoodlands.html click on News and the Pontbren Project.

Or

http://www.woodlandtrust.org.uk/publications/2013/02/the-pontbren-project/

The Pontbren results have shown conclusively that strategically planted narrow, fenced shelter belts of trees across slopes capture surface run-off from the pasture land above and allow it to soak more rapidly into the soil. Prepare to be shocked – up to 60 times more water can be soaked into woods than pastureland. That is not a misprint – 60 times more.

In Somerset they had a campaign for this called The Big Sponge. Okay Somerset problems are different to Cumbria, for a start the Levels are close to below sea level. Thanks to climate change the sea level on the Somerset coast is 5 to 7 inches higher than it was 100 years ago. 

Sadly the expertise that was being built up has been set back by this government and its previous coalition. The Labour government set up partnerships between the Environment Agency and local bodies including private business interests funded by taxpayer grants. These grants have been removed. The Environment Agency have done their best but have faced staff reductions and budget reductions as high as any in the public services. Flood defence spending has only risen if you add in one off emergency grants following flooding incidents. More planned expenditure has been cut considerably.

I don’t want to be overly political here, that would be cheap, but Cumbria has to develop a “Big Sponge” plan. The flood defences will cope but only if we slow down the water flow rate. Government through the EA, local councils (catchment projects), and local business (such as the Universities and farmers) have to work together. Incidentally the biggest funding for the Parrett Catchment Project is the European Union Regional Development Fund. 

Okay, I know that Cumbria has a lot of trees but I would ask, where are the trees on the side of Blencathra, on Threlkeld Common. I know that Cumbria’s topography is different with those funnel shaped valleys. It’s just that dredging is such a stupid idea.  Almost as bad as making EA engineers and scientists redundant.

The Raccoon has been reading

When I started this blog I intended to write about some of the books I’ve been reading and perhaps, how the writing has affected my perceptions of the world. It’s been a few months and I have not written anything about my reading yet, so this is a bit of a catch up. Damian McBrides book is the best book on UK government that I have read, so no apologies for starting with it.

Damian McBride - Power Trip. 

McBride was Gordon Brown’s press secretary, or if you prefer spin doctor or if you are David Cameron, Gordon’s attack dog. His book follows his life as a Civil Service Fast Stream entrant, working in Customs & Excise becoming an acknowledged expert on all matters VAT, through to the Treasury  and eventually moving from a non political role in the Civil Service, to a political role working for the Labour government as an indispensible aide to Gordon Brown. It’s all here, from a set of instructions on how to do the job, how to present your boss to the press, how to kill bad news and occasionally how to kill off threats to Gordon. Loved the insights into the MI5 vetting procedure and how Customs & Excise hide their drug smuggling informants.

Two things emerge, firstly what a truly wonderful sense of humour he has, and secondly how insightful he is on what went wrong and on the mistakes people make. It is also interesting to note how much fun Gordon Brown had behind closed doors away from that public front. He is very honest about the drinking which fuelled his 16 hour, seven days a week life. At the end when he was being sacked he was asked how much holiday he had left to take. He replied 136 days, having only taken 5 days in over 7 years. And that’s the crux of the problem, he was burned out but too indispensible to be replaced. 

For a new way to look at the two Eds including a hillarious object lesson from Ed Balls on how to break bad news to Gordon Brown, and for some classic examples of David Cameron’s crassness this book is a terrific read. It really is very entertaining and informative. It also explains Ed Milliband’s aversion to spin or getting close to the press as others call it.

McBride is an unrepentant fan of Gordon Brown. His book is very funny and reveals a very human side of Brown.

Michael Lewis – Flash Boys.

Reads rather like an adventure story. It’s well written and generally easy to understand. For the last 6 years of my working life, I worked on trading systems and this book really helped me to understand how our product was viewed by customers. While we were tracking delays of 0.25 of a second in our pricing systems, the flash boys were obsessing over fractions of a nano second. 

I remember the new IEX market which caused a late rebuild of a software release arousing my interest. For the next couple of months there were no trades against IEX and I ceased my interest. Well now I know what it was about and the interesting characters behind it. IEX currently has over 1% of the market in US equity trading.

Michael Lewis is now a regular interviewee on TV and radio. He has the ability to make complex things understandable and in my experience an awful lot of people cannot do that. Today he has an interview with Kamal Ahmed on the BBC website under the heading “The market is rigged”. If you dabble in shares and wonder how the bankers do it, this is a frightening guide to a corrupt system rigged in the electronic traders favour.

Terry Stoate – Iain Duncan Smith, My Part in his Downfall.

His is a bit of a rambling account of life on the dole in Cameron’s Britain. While it is hard to develop too much sympathy for Terry who expects the state to support him while we writes his book, it is a very interesting reveal on the games the Jobcentre play to simply throw people off the unemployment register (and out onto the streets). I used to work in an old style unemployment benefit office and I know how people play the system. I can understand the motivation of the civil servants who have government backing to fight back against the people who have no intention of working, but as is often the case it is the innocents who get targeted. Those playing the system are experienced enough to be difficult to target. By trying to target the unemployable scroungers, a lot of innocent people suffer. I’m really not sure it is worth the effort. Unemployable scroungers are not good candidates for the workforce, employers do not want them. Others who are unemployed and good candidates for employment need help, yet the bullying that IDS has put in place is targeting them. We are making victim’s of the wrong people.

Terry – love the title, but the book is an occasionally amusing ramble which ultimately disappoints.     

Ha-Joon Chang - 23 Things They Don’t Tell You about Capitalism.

A really good and worthwhile book. Ha-Joon Chang is a very bright guy who packs a lot of facts and analysis into his subject. He is not anti-market, but he is anti rigged market. His analysis is packed with facts and figures but is very readable. 

Anyone who claims that the free market is efficient should read this book. There is no such thing as a free market, they are all rigged. We have to make sure they are rigged in Society’s favour. 

Chang states that the economic catastrophe that was the market crash of 2008, was brought about by the free market ideology and in 23 chapters he goes on to prove it. Not only is his case compelling but he shows us the ways in which we can make capitalism work better.  

This book should be required reading for every politician, or even every sixth form pupil. (Do they have sixth forms anymore?) Come on guys, read this and get angry.

Bruce Catton & James M. McPherson – American Heritage History of the Civil War.

 Like many people, I watch the odd film which uses the American civil war as its backdrop. Lately I’ve watched the Daniel Day-Lewis version of Lincoln, before that I read Gore Vidal’s biographical novel of Lincoln. I also watched Abraham Lincoln, Vampire Hunter which took itself a bit seriously – a one joke film. I know a bit about the famous battles and war characters, Lee and Jackson, but I had no overall framework to put the stories into. 

Perhaps American kids learn all this stuff while we are reciting the names of Kings and Queens. Anyway I found this for the Kindle at a modest price and its a short, very readable book. It’s also from a respected and authoritative writer. It was written 65 years ago but with an easy going prose which makes it a joy to read.  

I like Gore Vidal’s novel, Lincoln, but this one is much shorter and easier to read. 

 

Tim Harford – The Undercover Economist Strikes Back.

This is a fairly innocent little book on how to run the economy. It written from the perspective of an advisor to you, the new chancellor. It goes through the decisions you’ll be faced with and tells you the pro’s and con’s while skilfully avoiding any answers. It’s a bit like a session with a Solicitor, don’t expect a yes/no answer.

I rattled through it, but found I knew most of the economics stuff anyway. Occasionally some of the stats were interesting but in general I’d recommend BBC’s podcasts of “More or Less” which are generally funnier and just as informative.

TTIP: If we lose our democracy, we have only ourselves to blame.

Last week I went to a local 38 Degrees meeting. The meeting was an open discussion of local activist concerns to be fed into a national view. The idea was to talk about how to make the world a better place. I went armed with my familiar prejudices, climate change and taxation. However what happened was much more interesting.

Someone spoke about plans to build 400 houses on grade 1 agricultural land belonging to the local lord of the manor. All those brown field site going spare and the countryside is under threat. The local council really couldn’t care and is very dismissive of local voters concerns. Local democracy is irrelevant when you have government targets, pressure from developers and profits for the local gentry at stake.

Another person spoke about the NHS being privatised. Not simply from a distant point of view but from someone who belongs to a group that tries to be represented at every monthly meeting of the local CCG. Someone who knows what they are talking about. They say getting involved with the CCG is very educational. Lots of services are being set up for privatisation and we are unaware of it.  NHS budgets are being cut irrespective of the official government line.

The most interesting topic was TTIP and again an ordinary concerned citizen stood up and spoke about what this trade negotiation between the EEC and the United states means to us all. By coincidence this was to be followed up this week when I was in the audience of around 80 people to hear John Hilary, director of War on Want, lead a discussion on TTIP. 

TTIP starts from a fairly logical business point of view. Barriers to trade exist not in the form of import taxes but as rules and regulations which inhibit competition. So the logical answer is to say that legislation in one country should be accepted by other countries. However this reasonable sounding start has teeth.

TTIP includes legislation to offer recompense if a market is not open. It works like this, A business which feels it is unfairly excluded from a market it serves can present its case to a closed court to be judged by business lawyers with no public accountability. Governments can be forced to pay millions in compensation for future profits lost. Such courts exist at the moment within Europe and between the USA and other countries such as Australia. The experience is not good. In Australia big tobacco is taking the government to court over plain packaging not simply for the impact on the current market but for loss of future profits given the tobacco companies plans to expand. Germany is being taken to court by a Swedish company because Germany decided to run down and close its nuclear power stations damaging the Swedish companies plans to expand their business. The Swedish company want €250 million for future profits lost.

Imagine what this means for the National Health Service. We can stop this but do you think our politicians care.  So many of our MP’s have business interests in private health care, including consultancies and directorships for American health businesses. The EEC negotiators state that this is not going to threaten public services and that the protestors are being naive. But be honest, US health companies have wanted a piece of the NHS for years now and TTIP gives them the teeth to exploit the changes introduced to the NHS by this coalition government.

As ever images speak louder than words and John Hilary spoke about American industrial farms where 15,000 cattle are held in cages within sheds and fed on grain. Due to the conditions and unsuitable diet they have to receive large amounts of antibiotics. They are also fed growth hormones which are carcinogenic. All of this is illegal in Britain. But TTIP is about doing away with barriers to trade. We simply will not be able to stop American exports of beef.   

TTIP will see the steady dismantling of our environmental and health protection in a race to the bottom. We can stop TTIP now. But all the major parties want it, although Labour are a bit wobbly so they can be influenced. We need to make your voice known. First check the facts on the internet, don’t just take my word for it. Second write to your MEP and make your voice known.

Important links:

http://www.waronwant.org/

http://www.38degrees.org.uk/page/s/Protect_our_NHS_Petition#petition

http://www.nhscampaign.org/

http://www.itv.com/news/2015-02-16/more-doctors-to-stand-in-election-to-save-the-nhs/

Global warming – Stupid lasts forever.

Aristophanes  “Youth ages, immaturity is outgrown, ignorance can be educated, and drunkenness sobered, but stupid lasts forever.” 

I watched a TV documentary on how the Somerset Levels were coping a year after the floods.  I noticed a few things. 

• One, how brave the guy from the Environment Agency was in talking to the residents. A few had a real go at him and he remained polite and sympathetic. Sadly few of the locals wanted to listen.
• Secondly, there was very little mention of global warming and no mention of sea level rise. I think this is a political failure. Our politicians lie to us and it is easier for us to live with that lie than face up to the awful truth. The Levels are almost at sea level now and very soon will be below sea level. Which bit of that do you not understand?
• Third was how people in denial are making such stupid decisions.  Dredging a river which is below sea level can only speed up the ingress of the sea.
• Lastly, it was all about the Levels with no mention of other areas flooded or of homes lost to the seas on the east coast. Okay Somerset is what the program was about but it reinforces the poor us attitude of the Somerset Levellors.

I am 62 and if I live to be 85 I will see the Somerset Levels reclaimed by the sea. I feel sorry for the people living there but they are ignorant of the facts. 

Over the last 100 years sea levels rose by 20 cm. But the rate of increase is accelerating at a very fast rate. Over the next 20 years expect a 30 cm rise as a minimum. The IPCC predict a rise of between 75 cm to 1.80 metres by 2100. We are currently tracking at the top of this range. 

A different method a calculating sea levels is based on looking at the relationship between global average temperature and sea levels. This semi-empirical method maps closely to the kinetic figures used by the IPCC effectively confirming them to date. However the projections from the semi-empirical data predict a sea level rise three times greater than the IPCC predictions in the future.

Latest science has yet to be reviewed by the IPCC, but if its valid the 1.8 metres is an underestimate. 6 metres is possible by 2100. 

Interesting footnote - Iceland is actually rising. Thats a result of a bounce as heavy ice retreats and the land thaws. Anticipate Bjorn Lomborg, Christopher Monkton and the rest of Nigel Lawson's crazy gang to bring that up as evidence of a conspiracy. Truth is that the land disturbance will drive more volcanic activity. Also sea levels in the Arctic are rising more slowly than the global average, which is a really interesting result of reducing mass affecting local gravitational attraction. Wow! Sea level rise is not uniform across the planet.

Here is a prediction - Miami is only around 1.10 metres above sea level. It will be the first major western city to be abandoned despite spending billions of dollars to try to save it.

www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=123

http://arctic-news.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/two-degrees-of-warming-closer-than-you-may-think.html

http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2015/01/sea-level-rise-models-and-observations-are-starting-agree

A must read:   http://charlesrangeleywilson.com/2014/01/11/a-flood-of-misinformation/